MVP! MVP! MVP! chants growing louder for Cubs' Baez

 
 
Updated 8/9/2018 4:00 PM
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  • Bruce Miles says Chicago Cubs infielder Javier Baez has a chance to win MVP honors in the National League this season.

    Bruce Miles says Chicago Cubs infielder Javier Baez has a chance to win MVP honors in the National League this season. Associated Press

It was just a couple years ago when Cubs manager Joe Maddon chuckled at a question about a Saturday being "just a day off" for Javier Baez.

Maddon's chuckle was based on his belief that Baez had not earned everyday playing time.

Nobody is chuckling anymore.

Baez has gone from a super-utility player with vast potential to an everyday dynamo who is hearing chants of "MVP, MVP" from Cubs fans at Wrigley Field and on the road.

Along with those chants, is there a chance Baez can win the Most Valuable Player Award in the National League this season?

Yes, there is.

This year's MVP field, with a more than a month and a half of the season to play, is wide open, with four candidates having strong chances to win and a few more lurking on the outskirts.

The MVP is an award of the Baseball Writers Association of America, with two voters covering each of the 15 NL teams casting votes. Ballots are turned in before the start of postseason play.

Here is a look at the top contenders as I see them, in no particular order of preference:

Javier Baez, Cubs:

Baez has a hitting line of .298/.331/.585 with 25 home runs and a league-leading 88 RBI entering Thursday's play. Baez's OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .916.

Baez has an OPS+ (with 100 being league average and taking ballpark effects and league into consideration) of 135. If you prefer the similar figure of weighted runs created plus (wRC+), it's 138. The wins above replacement (WAR) for Baez is 4.4, third in the NL.

If there's one thing that could sway voters against Baez, it's his on-base percentage of .331.

But Cubs manager Joe Maddon also likes Baez's defense, which is spectacular at times.

And if you place emphasis on the world "valuable" in Most Valuable Player (rather than "best player"), Baez's value to the Cubs has been immense.

"Try to evaluate the entire game," Maddon said. "Don't get locked into a number just because you're prejudiced in that regard.

"It's a complete game. We are where we're at over the last several years because we play more of a complete game. When KB (Kris Bryant) won it (2016), KB played a pretty total game himself. It's easy to fall in love with certain things, but I'm hoping that real baseball players are recognized more. I want to believe we're getting back to that, as opposed to just being this math equation that doesn't necessarily win games."

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter.
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter. - Associated Press
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals:

The Cardinals are fighting for a playoff spot, and if they make it, Carpenter's value to them will be as important to Baez's value to the Cubs. Some of his numbers are better than what Baez has posted.

Carpenter is at .281/.393/.598 with 31 homers and 63 RBI. His OPS+ is 166 with the wRC+ at 161. Carpenter's 4.9 WAR led the NL Thursday.

His slugging percentage (.598) and OPS (.991) led the league.

Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. - Associated Press
Nolan Arenado, Rockies:

Arenado has the advantage of playing half his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field, and that may work against him in the voting.

His line entering Thursday night's game against the Dodgers was .304/.388/.584 with 29 homers and 81 RBI. The OPS+ and wRC+ both were 142, and the WAR of 4.7 was second in the league.

Arenado's batting average at Coors Field entering Thursday was .352. It's .259 on the road.

Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman. - Associated Press
Freddie Freeman, Braves:

Freeman is another player with whom the word "valuable" may mean something if the Braves make the postseason.

Entering Thursday's game at Washington, Freeman was at .314/.395/.517 with 18 homers and 70 RBI. His OPS+ was 148 with the wRC+ being 143. Freeman's WAR of 4.3 had him right behind Baez.

MVP voters must name 10 players on their ballot. Pitchers always appear on most ballots, and this year Washington's Max Scherzer will get MVP and Cy Young Award votes. The Mets' Jacob deGrom also may appear on MVP ballots.

The Milwaukee Brewers are chasing the Cubs in the NL Central. Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich likely will figure into the MVP mix. Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt is a perennial candidate.

So how do writers prepare a ballot and vote? Each has his or her own method. For me, I create a "matrix" of traditional and advanced stats and compare players using those.

I also take into consideration the word "valuable" in terms of how much value the player had to his team, especially if his performance was instrumental in the team making the postseason. At this point, the favorites have established themselves, but my MVP ballot is still a blank slate.

Ben Zobrist was the MVP of the 2016 World Series, and Javier Baez has a chance to earn MVP honors for the National League regular season this year.
Ben Zobrist was the MVP of the 2016 World Series, and Javier Baez has a chance to earn MVP honors for the National League regular season this year. - Associated Press

• Twitter: @BruceMiles2112

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